Therapy Areas – Market Share, Growth and Peak Sales
Oncology’s dominance set to continue but which other areas are growing fast?
Oncology has seen huge levels of investment in the past few decades, and sales of cancer drugs already eclipse revenues made in other disease areas. This dominance is projected to grow, with oncology accounting for 22% of sector sales in 2028, up six percentage points from 2022.
Cancer drug revenues will swell to $346bn in 2028, Evaluate Pharma predicts; this is more than double the next largest therapy area by sales, which encompasses treatments for disorders of the central nervous system.
CNS, which includes both neurological and psychiatric conditions, is another growth area, with sales set to expand 9% on an annualised basis out to 2028. Should reimbursement improve in the Alzheimer’s category, that projection could prove conservative.
Immunomodulators cannot be beaten on growth, however, with this field having seen the arrival of numerous novel approaches for a wide range of autoimmune and autoinflammatory diseases. This therapy area encompasses both biologic and conventional medicines. Dupixent, the Sanofi and Regeneron MAb, is a prime example of the former, while Abbvie’s JAK inhibitor Rinvoq belongs to the latter.
Elsewhere, some big patent expiries in endocrine mean that this therapy area does not feature as highly in terms of growth as might be expected. While the incretin class is a huge sales driver in type 2 diabetes and obesity, the loss of blockbuster brands like Merck & Co’s Januvia and Lilly’s Trulicity will act as a brake in the coming years.
Some big patent expires in endocrine mean that this therapy area does not feature as highly in terms of growth as might be expected.
Evaluate Omnium’s PTRS, or probability of technical and regulatory success, is a machine learning derived figure based on various historical inputs. The chart to the left, which incorporates that figure, helps explain why certain therapy areas might attract investment more easily than others.
The field of immunomodulators, for example, continues to attract much research money and is frequently the subject of business development. Average clinical development spend – indicated by the circle size – and PTRS sit close to the median for this therapy area, while the average peak sales is among the highest.
