2028:
Market Growth & Patent Cliffs

What’s the impact of
looming patent expiries
on the overall market?

Figure 1. Worldwide Total Prescription Drug Sales (2014-2028)

2028: Market Growth & Patent Cliffs

What’s the impact of looming patent expires on the overall market?

Sales of prescription drugs are expected to grow almost 6% year-on-year out to 2028, according to Evaluate Pharma’s consensus forecasts. These numbers are based on sellside analyst estimates and include forecasts for R&D projects as well as products already on the market. In the shorter term, these data show the pandemic bounce to be over. Zero growth is predicted in 2023 over the previous year. Demand for Covid-19 prevention and treatment is now more knowable than in the pandemic years, and this is a market in decline. Sales of products related to SARS-Cov-2 topped $100bn in 2022, will come in at less than half of this in 2023, and are likely to drop to around $30bn by 2028, according to current projection. In the longer term, the sector’s expanding top line will be driven by developments in obesity, neurological conditions and cancer. Last year’s edition of the World Preview predicted compound annual growth of 6.1% from 2021 to 2028. Based on the updated numbers that figure over the same period now comes in at 5.7%. The US government’s Inflation Reduction Act, which from 2022 introduced provisions to limit above-inflation price rises for drugs covered by Medicare, could be contributing to this very slight moderation. However, there are many moving parts behind this chart. The changing prospects of individual products in biopharma’s huge medicine locker, both marketed and those still in development, will also play a big role.

Figure 2. Worldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration (2014-2028)

Patent expiry pressures are set to amplify as the decade progresses. From 2026 a swathe of huge blockbusters could start to face lower-cost competition. These include Bristol Myers Squibb/Pfizer’s Eliquis; Regeneron and Bayer’s Eylea; Johnson & Johnson/AbbVie's Imbruvica; and the checkpoint inhibitor giants Keytruda and Opdivo, from Merck & Co and Bristol respectively.

With intellectual property still being litigated in several of these cases, the exact date of exclusivity loss remains hard to know. As such, while the shape of the chart above could change, these products will fall eventually.