Orphan Shares at J&J, Merck, Roche Rise; Fall Back at Vertex
Orphan drugs will account for close to half of J&J’s prescription drug sales by 2030, considerably higher than the 25% or so at AstraZeneca, Roche, Novartis, BMS and Amgen. Vertex will come off its current 100% reading thanks to newly approved pain medicine Journavx (suzetrigine), in clinical testing for two further pain settings. Journavx may mark the beginning of the biotech’s next mega-franchise.
Behind Merck’s Winrevair-charged double digit orphan sales growth between 2024 and 2030 come Roche and J&J, each with close to 10% CAGR over the period. BMS and Pfizer, with shrinking orphan sales, may fall out of the top ten beyond 2030.
Worldwide Orphan Drug Sales (2024/2030): Top 10 Companies & Total Market
WW Orphan Sales ($bn)
Percentage of sales coming from orphan drugs
Company
2024
2030
CAGR
1
Johnson & Johnson
20.0
31.7
+9.6%
36%
47%
2
AstraZeneca
14.6
17.9
+4.1%
32%
29%
3
Roche
10.7
17.3
+9.9%
17%
27%
4
Novartis
15.3
15.4
+0.2%
23%
26%
5
Vertex Pharmaceuticals
10.8
14.9
+6.7%
100%
81%
6
Sanofi
8.6
11.3
+5.6%
20%
19%
7
Amgen
7.2
9.3
+5.4%
8
Merck & Co
2.2
+33.4%
4%
14%
9
Bristol Myers Squibb
13.5
9.2
-7.4%
25%
10
Pfizer
9.6
8.7
-1.9%
