Move Over, Oncology…
MOVE OVER, ONCOLOGY: CNS AND IMMUNOMODULATORS RISE
Oncology still leads the therapy area rankings for orphan drugs. But its share will fall over the next five years – mirroring the broader slow-down in orphan vs non-orphan growth. Oncology has come off the boil as precision medicines tackling ever-narrower genetic mutations run out of road commercially (druggable ‘pan-cancer’ mutations are elusive), and as CAR-T therapies continue to face challenging administration logistics.
CNS orphan drug sales will more than double between 2023 and 2028, by which time they’ll make up over 10% of orphan sales by value. This reflects broader industry interest in this once-neglected area: witness AbbVie’s $8.7 billion acquisition of CNS-focused Cerevel or Bristol Myers Squibb’s $14 billion Karuna deal, both announced in December 2023. Immunomodulators – another popular space, as per Merck’s $10.8 billion Prometheus Biosciences deal last April – are also grabbing a bigger share of the orphan pie. They will almost triple, reaching 7% in 2028, up from 4% in 2023.
WW Annual Sales ($bn)
Therapeutic Category
2023
2028
CAGR
Oncology
68.3
112.8
11%
Blood
22.8
34.4
9%
Central Nervous System
13.5
28.4
16%
Immunomodulators
6.1
17.7
24%
Musculoskeletal
7.0
17.3
20%
Respiratory
15.1
14.6
-1%
Various
8.3
10%
Cardiovascular
5.7
11.9
Endocrine
4.4
5%
Systemic Anti-infectives
1.6
4.7
Sensory Organs
2.1
3.7
12%
Gastro-Intestinal
1.4
3.5
